tv Street Signs CNBC January 6, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
the ten year note below the 2% mark. we are really watching interest rates in today's trading session. >> down to a session low earlier but the ten year back off of the oil basically flat today. here comes "street signs." see you tomorrow. stocks tumble, oil down again and now ten year yields breaking back below 2%. happy new year. welcome to "street signs." i'm brian sullivan. it is all about the markets as the oil shock continues to shock the markets and the world. >> it really is a shock. very few on the street predicted a fall of this magnitude and so fast talking of which stocks have been sinking fast although off the worst levels. the dow suffering its worst two-day loss since june of 2013. as you were saying money is fleeing stocks and going into
treasury. the ten year correct below 1.9 earlier on today which was the lowest since october 15. it is back above it at 1.944%. look at gold behind me creeping higher to a three-week high, some calling it a bit of a flight to safety. look at this three-year chart. it is amazing. one chart that tells a very vivid story. let's bring it up. we have the three lines with white line is the dow. green is the green back. we don't have the chart. we will try to give it to you later on. there it is. >> there it is. >> had to draw it. >> you have the steady chart. the dow is the blue line. the green line is the dollar. look at the orange line absolutely falling off a cliff. that, my friends, is crude oil. it lost about 8% just in the last two days and now early 2009 lows below $48 a barrel. we will bring it to you, the settlement in about half an hour's time. >> the orange line is a lot of
jobs and people. as we reported from north dakota and texas the oil shock starting to take a bite out of production and jobs. check out the latest oil and gas oil rig count data from the big firm of baker hughes. there were 1,840 operating oil and gas rigs in america last week, this week down to 1,811 that is a drop of 1.5%. it was nearly 10% higher last week. it is not too terrible for us yet. canada is beginning to get crushed. their cost of production higher and rigs shut at a more rapid pace. last week 256 operating oil and gas rigs. this week just 208. that means that 18% of canada's oil and gas rigs as measured by baker hughes have been shut down in just a week. for the job impact keep this rough guide in mind as we learned in texas there are about
25 people directly employed by each new drilling rig. there are 100 different companies and hundreds of workers who are indirectly employed and attached to each drilling rig. this could be, in other words, a big hit to jobs. u.s. steel announcing it is laying off about 750 workers because of the drop in crude. u.s. steel will idle a plant in ohio. so for the week the stock is down about 7%. let's bring in cnbc contributor, listen, at this point i'm running out of what to ask about oil. what the hell is happening? >> i liken it to a syndrome now. every day we are getting this one-two punch. it's increasing supplies. we saw russia, post soviet union era high. iraq over 3.3 million barrels. and then shaky demand.
the chinese are supposedly contemplating a $1 trillion stimulus to do infrastructure work and to maintain 7% gdp all coming together to cause this cascade. >> is there any bid in oil right now at all? >> we are all feeling it -- >> is it almost name your price? >> what is bad is usually in the beginning of the year but every new quarter fresh money trying to get exposure commodities. i thought we would see that after last year. what we are seeing is people getting out. right now the long term chart i see around 40 to 42 as a base. if that is taken out we are going back to the -- like in the 80s. going to 70 and then going to
60. are you surprised by how low we have gone? >> absolutely. i thought we would be the 50s by the end of the quarter. >> the oil rig data was not bad. >> 1.5% of rigs. having been to north dakota and texas they can't withstand it for long. at what point with the equilibrium of declining production stabilize prices? what is it going to take? >> it's a good question. here is the corollary. they collapsed, have come down and stayed down. that is because more and more natural gas has been coming online despite low prices. more infrastructure got built out despite low prices. i'm not sure we don't repeat that for a while with crude oil. the saudis far and away are the last people standing in this. the implosion is going to be the
u.s. fracers. the canadian guys are going to get ruined. >> 20% of rigs were shot down in just a week. we are down about almost 40% ourselves from earlier in the year. >> it's already happening. we will probably lose 200 more of our own rigs over the course of the next month or two. >> how many more rigs do we see shut down in the near future. you dug around and saw the incredible decimation in canada. >> we forget there is a number of stocks that trade here that are canadian. look at some of the names. folks, we are showing viewers, these are 90-day changes. three-month changes in the stock market. these are major corporations in canada down 60%. you have major oil and gas drillers and companies that have lost two-thirds of the market value in 90 days. this is -- i don't know if this
is unprecedented. i don't follow canadian oil market but that is dramatic. >> so -- >> oil underneath those properties are worth a heck of a lot less and borrowing bases, a fancy word for collateral to the banks called into correction. some of the friends in houston texas who are in construction or real estate business are calling it every day when is this going to stop. expecting sales to drop, expecting prices to drop. this is going to go through all the states like north dakota, alaska, oklahoma, texas. >> here is how we define it. this is obviously very rough.
i would say it is like this. commodity price and then you have service production and capital expenditure cuts and wage cuts which trickle down through real estate and the banks. that is the downward spiral. it is not just about the price of oil or price of gasoline. i was thinking i know we have to go. >> caterpillar getting downgraded yesterday. >> not enough to stop -- >> you hate to admit you are wrong. maybe we have had it wrong. maybe instead of asking why is oil at $50 maybe we should have been asking why was oil at $100? >> why above 90 for so long? >> maybe the high price was the anomaly.
maybe we should have been asking why did it rise so much? maybe i'm wrong. >> we were tight for many years there and we couldn't afford another outage. while that was happening the fracers were working away like busy bees. when it hit the tipping point earlier this year u.s. gulf coast got flooded and oil production over 9 million barrels and iraq came online and the russia production came back. it's a wave of oil. it's flooded the market and it is a commodity. there is no intrinsic value. >> i hope you are wrong about the low 40s. they are going to get pinched. >> i agree with you. >> every boom has a bust. >> so now you know the setup. stocks looking like the new york knicks. all potential, no performance. let's speak with one guy smily. david tice, we also have head of global strategy and cnbc
contributor. what is causing this and what are you doing about it? >> well, i tell you, it is a tough market for a lot of people. this marks the fifth day if the market declines through the end of the day that we have had five days in a row down. we have had 265 straight days where that has not occurred. that's the first time in 87 years that we went that far without a four-day decline. also, we had the first two days where the market was declined. 49% of the time going back 118 years, the market has been down since then. people are scared about oil. we have record valuations in the market in terms of price to sales. we have profits as percentage of gdp at 12.5% at record levels. market is very high. there could be an accident and the market could go lower. >> how much lower. i know in august you were one of the most bearish in calling for a 30% to 60% decline in the market. i'm sure a lot of people laughed
at you. do you think it is the start of something much bigger and more sinister or a buying opportunity for some? >> i really think this could be the start of something. of course, itypically have been early. the market has rallied a number of times after the first declines. who knows where it is going to go longer term. i'm making a bet that over the next two years market is going to be dramatically lower. quantitative easing, increased fed balance sheet to $4.5 trillion. you can't just print money and create prosperity. this is created levitation in asset prices. bill gross came out today, the famed bond manager and said good times are over. >> let's ratched back a little bit and get out of the barrel as we head towards niagara falls. let's get on land a little bit. i'll make the bull case for stocks, i guess. we are 4.5% off our 52-week
highs. as prices come down so do valuations. it's been a great year. we just hit a 52-week high in the market two weeks ago. are you bullish or bearish? >> to david's point and one should never laugh at david. markets can always fall apart. to think otherwise is to imagine a future without problems. 49% of the time markets have been lower. 51% of the time they have been higher. flip a coin. many times and you find yourself in the probability of it could go either way. i do think that with interest rates so low the thing that people miss is that companies are really the only locust above trend growth in the world. you don't invest in national economies unless you buy sovereign bonds and then different things go into it. companies bare very little the
cost of being alive. they don't bear health care, national defense, infrastructure. they get to benefit from aspects of our economy that are doing well, consumer spending, affluents. that is where you have to look at and some sectors are going to not follow that trend like energy. i don't see reason why as has been true for the past four years you can have significant divergence between trouble in the world of eurozone and japan growth. companies doing well and stocks doing better. >> are you worried that recently the last eight data points have been quite spotty, today included on factory orders and services sector, as well. you can say we are having a rouse in the market and fundamentals are solid. i wonder whether economic fundamentals are getting shaky, effects of end of qe and global weakness. >> i don't think economic fundamentals. economic data points have been
so great at any pint. they are not terrible. we should have our national touting should be at least we are better than europe in that it's good only by comparison. that is not what you are seeing with companies, some of which are growing 10, 15% with earnings. they are growing above these trends. >> can i point out that gas prices are down and interest rates are going down and the american consumer 2 million jobs added. >> there you go. >> the negative of the markets is energy right now without any of the positive. >> i have been on the record as saying i think it is net negative more than net positive. maybe i am out there by myself. when your research team looks at this market are there stocks or sectors that you feel are most vulnerable? >> well, i'd say the most vulnerable obviously energy. the group we love the most is gold mining stocks.
>> very well today. >> you like them on the long side or want to short them on the recent strength? >> i love them on the long side, reverse directions on you. the biggest cost to gold miners is energy. $1.5 million for american barrick, biggest cost up from $1 billion a few years ago. the miners are levitating. you look at gold price compared to oil it's now at 24. it's almost doubled since may. and therefore gold is going to continue to do well. we have quantitative easing around the world. you can't print your way to prosperity. >> thank you for your thoughts. perhaps later on in the show we will pull up a board to show you how well number of the gold stocks are doing today. let's get to kate kelly with breaking news. >> a key figure in the ongoing
battle over herbal life stock is out. the key architect of the investment in herbal life left the fund company. herbal life shares dropped more than 50% in 2014 probably making them a big black eye in that portfolio and have continued swooning in recent days on high volume. during the back half of last year once one of the largest positions from about 5 million shares to less than 2 million. what it is doing in the markets less clear. however, the fund manager has been a controversial figure in the hedgefund battle over herbal life. the marketer back in 2013 when pushing as a long idea he reportedly bragged to other investors that while his company's founder had broken the bank of england with the famous
currency trade soros could break the back of bill ackman. fired back with an sec complaint ledging that soros had broken insider trading rules by encouraging others to go long the stock. paul sohn didn't respond for request for comment but a spokesman said paul sohn's departure is unrelated to any position he has had or has in herbal life. what is worse than a steep selloff? how about an embezzlement scandal? a company called xoom going boom. one analyst has the worst timing every. we are going to go live to the consumer electronics show in las vegas with julia boorstin is sitting down with i heart media which has an exciting new deal.
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welcome back to "street signs." 20 minutes after the hour. shares of apple on track for their worst six-day streak since october of 2011. apple down more than 7% over the past six days. apple hit an all-time high of 119.75 a share in november. >> the consumer electronic show well underway in las vegas. let's get to julia boorstin live with the ceo of i heart media.
over to you, julia. >> thanks so much. and bob pittman thanks for joining us. you have a number of announcements here all about parent i heart media with a range of electronics makers. what do the partnerships mean for the future of i heart media and radio? >> all of the devices are radios. we have clock radio, hand held radio. so although they are digital products to the consumer they are one way to get favorite radio stations. >> translator: do you think that means you have more listeners and more ad dollars as a result? >> the average listener listens to radio eight or nine different times a day. when they leave their car and have to walk to office we want them to listen on the phone. we would like them to put on the favorite radio station. i think it increases our listening but intensifies the
relationship with the consumer and all of that adds to more ad dollars. >> you reported weaker results because of the core ad business was disappointing. what will it take to turn that around? >> it takes a strengthening economy and ad spending. i think there are puculeiarities. my sense is that the economy is looking stronger, people getting more confident and putting marketing dollars out there. it has been radio and tv and been digital. i think we have all felt it. i sense a turn around and sense it talking to the advertisers that this is hopefully the year in which they say let's stop the slow down and get back to really playing the offense. >> interesting to hear the broader optimism about the economy. the question is whether
advertisers can advertise on spotify or pandora or may be putting ad dollars elsewhere. >> 90% of all radio listening is broadcast radio including i heart radio and pandora. more important is really looking for -- they are spending a dollar and want to know what they are getting back. the advent of big data is not that we are going to target better but the advertiser demand we give them return on investment because they can track it. what is great about raid is whereas digital and tv are thought of as two to one, radio is about six to one. neilsen measured that last year. it is stunning to have that much better roi. what that really reflects is radio has been under priced. >> when you look at decline do you think that is because there
is concern that advertisers go to social media where they can get different metrics? >> i think stock decline and i think stocks have a whole different life. i won't get into that. i will tell you in terms of performance of the company what you are seeing is we are building bigger and bigger relationships with bigger and bigger companies. i think that has been exciting news for us and the future. >> taylor swift pulled her music from spotify. what does that mean for radio? >> radio breaks music and always has. 70% of spotify users discover music on fm radio. i think when you look at spotify that is a replacement for the cd, for itunes downloads and i think people like taylor swift are saying i'm not sure it is big enough to warrant it being there. better economic outcome. those are decisions i think the artist has to make and that is
the future about the music business. >> interesting time for the music business. thank you for joining us here. back over to you, mandy. thank you very much julia boorstin. we will get back later on in the show. the obamacare reality is beginning to hit taxpayers this week simply because it is making filing your taxes a lot more difficult. however, the nation's best known tax preparer is about to make unique offers to you. stick around. it is day one of the new session of congress and we already have some pretty dramatic news from the capital and the white house. we have an update for you live just ahead and also if this new year's sell off makes you want to take a stiff drink you are not alone. one stock is getting a big upgrade today. it is a name all of you loyal "street signs" viewers will know well.
>> could be a short term bid. gold maybe hitting technical levels. european buyers might be coming into gold. i have been a long-time gold hater. >> which is why i was looking at you to chime in and play the other side. house members of the 114th congress get back to work today. moments ago john boehner was reelected as house speaker. a number of developments including comments from the white house on keystone in just the last hour. >> exactly, brian. there was just enough flight to safety for john boehner to withstand that rebellion of conservatives who felt he wasn't far enough leaning to the right. john boehner was reelected. mitch mcconnell sworn in as new majority with 54 members. josh earnest came into the white house briefing room for the first briefing and said the president would veto legislation which is going to pass at least
in part this week in the house of representatives to approve the keystone pipeline. here is josh earnest. >> you will recall that we put out a statement of administration position indicating the president would have vetoed. i can confirm that if this bill passes this congress the president wouldn't sign it, either. and that is because there is already a well established process in place to consider whether or not infrastructure projects like this are in the best interest of the country. >> of course, that veto is not expected to be the last word in this discussion. why is that? because as josh earnest indicated state department has a process. the president has slow walked this thing. he doesn't seem to care about it one way or the other, regards it as having mild environmental impacts and mild economic benefits. all of that represents bargaining space for republicans want to make a deal with him. i think that is the next step in
the process after the veto, the discussion how much republicans want to improve the pipeline especially given the fall in oil prices and what they might be willing to give the president on energy policy in return for that. >> thank you very much live in washington. i'm glad you brought up oil prices because it is closing right now. let's get to jackie deangelis. >> closing just moments ago down $2 on the day roughly around $48. we hit a session low of $47.56. although we went under 50 we didn't hold it at the close. meantime they are at $51.24 right now. saying brent breaks $50 and gets the four handle it is significant because it indicates that in some time we can see wti in the 30s. some analysts have been changing the forecast and saying that can
happen. a couple of reasons for the selling pressure today late comments coming out from saudi arabia's crown prince talking about standing firm on oil prices and blaming the problem with pricing on weak global demand. a lot of traders saying it seems they are out of touch here. steve liesman would tell you don't fight the feds. speaking of production we are going to get a report from the department of energy on inventories. traders are looking for a build. the supply demand imbalance continues to grow. that is what is forcing prices lower at this time. back to you. >> jackie deangelis thank you very much. this tax season is going to be a lot more complicated than usual in part due to obamacare. in fact, this thursday h&r block stores will be offering free advice for 12 hours to help you, the consumer prepare for the biggest tax code change in two
decades. executive director of the tax institute at h&r block is here now. as if preparing your tax wasn't complicated enough now you have to take into account the aca. >> the affordable care act introduced the biggest change to taxes in the last 20 years. every filer will be impacted by it. some who have insurance will just have to check the box and others are going to have more complex forms. everyone will have questions about what does this mean to them? how does this impact their tax return? that is why we are having this special q&a day on thursday that is free for all consumers, no appointments needed where we can really help people spend the time that they need to to understand how aca impacts their pax return. >> it is a great service you are offering here. no doubt a lot of people will avail themselves of that service. it is not just out of the
goodness of your heart. how much more do you expect to get in new business? how many more new clients do you expect to get out of that particular day? >> the aca regulations have introduced a lot of complexity and confusion into the market place. the tax institute at h&r block have been conducting surveys to understand how many questions, how clear are people on this. so for example, we think that about one in four of our clients is going to have a significant impact based on the aca in terms of it may impact their refund either in a positive or negative way. and so we really need to make sure that we're ready, that our tax professionals are ready and that our clients are ready for this. >> thank you very much. i'm sure even your tax preparers have found this quitardue s to get heads around the obamacare thing. >> including my beloved mother
who works for h&r block. my mom has been taking classes. 74 years old, go mom. be sure to tune in to mad money tomorrow. that should be big one, a very different season. not every stock is hurting from the oil selloff. we have an upgrade for a company that benefits from lower oil prices. do stay with us. say you're a finance guy. a farmer. a researcher. you used to depend on experience. the internet. your gut. today you can use ibm watson analytics. it can make sense of all kinds of data.
concerns. the upgrade at fed ex downgraded csx. >> got it. as a result down by 3.6%. i was reading what was in the prompter. >> let's move on to the stock that we tease as beneficiary of lower oil prices. getting upgrade to buy. >> the target boosted $117. that implies 20% total return. goldman citing falling oil prices as benefit of growing exposure. a nice boost there for con stiilation. darden upgraded. >> now outperform. they cite a couple of things, cost cuts and strengthening core trends. their target is 67. stock is at 58. you can do the math. >> naming it as a top pick.
>> haven't had a lot of positive. dick's expected to go to mid teens. they like the way golf-related weakness -- golf has been dying in america. they think it is finally behind them so upgrade for dks, based in pittsburgh. under the radar name and the goldman is giving upgrade from mutual to sell. >> you know me and you know i hate calls downgraded to neutrals or equal weight because -- however, this call is a little more interesting because when you go from sell to neutral but you have a price target $4 above current stock price it is a little more on the buy rating. ch robinson, goldman giving them an upgrade. it's kind of like if you are going to have a target price or just make it a buy because your
price target is implying $4.5 of upside. >> i don't know. >> just saying. coming up, we are going to tell you about a company whose cfo resigned after the company itself was ripped off for $31 million. really an incredible story and herb greenberg said i don't know -- herb does that. herb has that effect on me. if you are out there you just choked me all up. as we go to break take a look at dow transports today. they currently down by 1.6%. but over the past two days the dow transports shed about 4.5% which means it is about the worst two days the transports have had in nearly a year, folks.
what is your read on this? >> it is hard to say. you see the cfo leave and you say what is going on there? he was there just a month you can't really pull those pieces together the way some people want to. you have a situation where this industry across border online transactions from online from your bank account somewhere else to a bank account is a booming business. i think what you are seeing is companies like xoom has to determine that it has to get better controls in place. i think that is what you are going to see going forward. this is a confusing story. the initial thought is -- apparently herb this was not customer money. from the company itself and talking about employee
impersonations. it appears that there was a criminal outside or inside access to the company. >> so somebody figured out the hole in the system. you have to understand in the remittance industry this is where the growth is going. you look at a western union, this is kind of interesting. huge business for us by the end of 2015 we have $500 million revenue and then three quarters ago they go we don't know they can get there. by the end of 2014 it was like $190 million. you get companies like xoom and others going into the business. it comes back to controls in place. company like xoom going to have to spend more money to get controls in place. they said some of this may be insurance. not to worry. in fact, the company continues to push forward and this is probably going to be i would
suspect a blip in the history. >> barclays maintains overweight rating. they say it has little effect in the end of the day and confident the loss is limited to the $30.8 million. maybe it will blow over or maybe, maybe not. >> the big -- xoom becomes. if you are sitting there and you're doing your online business. you are western union xoom is taking business away from you. they are now the guy to beat. so others are out there trying to do the same thing. they are the leader in that space in the online space. and so they are not going anywhere. again, you get down to the concept of how do you keep this from happening again? was it a hack? maybe they will say it was a hack.
>> everyone uses the word too much. >> it's down 84 points. also coming up we are going back out for another big ceo interview. >> take a look at first solar. we talk about the impact of oil. some of the alternative energy companies may be disproportionately hit. first solar down nearly 9% on the year. it is the worst performer so far in 2015 on the s&p 500. we are back right after this.
37% is not minor. it's down 76 points. we were down much more than that. dow industrials are higher. merck, walmart, verizon, mcdonald's, chevron, at&t, caterpillar and other ones are down. >> that's a lot. time now to get -- >> 76%. >> consumer electronics show. jon fortt with the ceo of at&t mobile and business solutions. take it away. >> all right. thanks, mandy. ralph de la vega, thank you for joining us. i'm going to ask you to do some reality checks here. you are in a lot of spaces. home motivation. moving more into cars and wearables are connecting to your network more and more. which of these areas, say between home automation and wearables is not there as much?
which is more real? >> back to your point is everything is connected in this show. cars are connected. there are autonomous vehicles. everybody wants to connect the home, the car and everything in between. and i love the leadership position that we have had where our vision for doing that is that the smartphone becomes your remote control for your life. with your smartphone and the capables, you can control your car. you can control your home. and everything in between and the coffee pot if you want to. we think there's significant advances coming. what i love what i saw today and yesterday is what the car manufacturers are doing. it's simply amazing. there's ten of them here. many are our customers putting incredible capabilities in carls to make it safer and more entertaining to be driving a car. we love what we have done with gm and connecting the vehicles. we are connecting all of the tesla vehicles. the audi a3s and simply amazing.
>> so let's talk cars for a moment. the big innovation in cars is navigation. totally change the way people drive. no longer having that conversation, how do i get to your house. first, wait until you get the gas station and make a left and a right. so, what is the next thing? is it going to be entertainment possibilities opening up wire in the car? what's the next thing that's big there? >> back to the example, i remember used to open maps to get one place to another and that's crazy. nobody does that anymore because of when's done to reinvent the way people drive one place to another. one thing that audi has done that's a step above everything else is send a picture to the audi a3 and we connect with and the car will drive you there. >> drive you to -- >> to the picture location or if you have somebody that's lost, doesn't know where they are, send it to the car and the car takes you there. you will see amazing software
capabilities built into the cars to make it safer and easier to operate. >> you guys had a hack-a-thon in a scenario and renting out a place on air b & b and i want the tenant to have a good, one-time key and my home and automation system and send them the key within two miles for the code. they open it up and when they leave, the geofence says they're gone and can't get in using that anymore. how far is that from reality? >> that was developed over the last 48 hours by a hack-a-thon team that did an amazing job. we have the capabilities in the cloud with programming interfaces and the young people come in and develop application that is are just unbelievable. in this case, we send the key to the person renting the house and with a proximity sensor, that person opens the door. you don't have to get it from another place. you do it all through software
over the connectivity we provide customers and just amazing. another invention that came up in the same hack-a-thon, jon, people who snooze while driving so they have the unsnoozer app developed for us that makes a facial picture and detects when you're beginning to nod and change and then sends a message to your smartwatch alerting you to wake up because you're falling asleep. those kind of things are just beginning to take off. i think the opportunities are unbelievable. sending it to somebody else, too. >> you can do that, as well. >> thank you so much. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much, jon. we'll continue the follow the markets because the bouncing around a little bit. the dow down more than 200 points earlier on today and now only down by 89 so let's see how much of a come bs back we stage before closing out for the day. stick around. one million business owners get started.
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like every day, you will want to wake up early tomorrow and turn on your television to this channel not because joe and andrew and becky are just great people and a quality show, but because they have a new set. "squawk box, "big day tomorrow moving to new york city. beautiful new studio in midtown manhattan. glass walls. >> you're sounding really jealous. >> i am. >> a little hint of envy in your voice. >> yeah.
a lot of envy. magnolia bakery across the street. i'm jealous. fully admit it. >> that would have been bad for you and waistline. better to be here with no food whatsoever. >> i have squawk-enfrouda. you're welcome. and welcome to "theeverybod. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> we've had quite a day. this last hour instructive. very volatile day. looked like a bounce from yesterday. but then it fell on -- we had a really climatic kind of selloff and a flight to safety. and now we have come back again. >> right. that's -- earlier today looked like giving up 500 points in 2 sessions on the dow and coming back. an interesting thing to watch perhaps is 1% range on the dow if we have a decline there. it would be more unusual for